Climate models predict serious impacts on the western U.S. in the next few decades, including increased temperatures and reduced precipitation. In combination, these changes are linked to profound impacts on fundamental systems, such as water and energy supplies, agriculture, population stability, and the economy.

Global and national imperatives for climate change mitigation and adaptation are made actionable at the state level, for instance through greenhouse gas (GHG) emission regulations and incentives for renewable energy sources. However, adaptation occurs at the local level, where energy and water usage can be understood relative to local patterns of agriculture, industry, and culture. Climate change adaptation efforts and investments at the local (county) level can be enhanced by partnerships with regional climate change impacts programs at the National Laboratories.

An example of this kind of successful partnership is the ongoing sustainability initiative involving Sonoma County, California, and Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). In response to the greenhouse gas emission reductions required by California’s Assembly Bill 32 (2006), Sonoma County has committed to sharp emissions reductions across several sectors, including water, energy, and transportation.

The partnership is developing an integrated assessment framework to assist Sonoma County develop a renewable energy (RE) portfolio to achieve this goal. Building on Sonoma County’s existing baseline studies of energy use, carbon emissions and potential RE sources, a LANL system dynamics model, CLEAR model (CLimate-Energy Assessment for Resiliency), simulates  the complex interactions among technology deployment, economics and social behavior. The project web portal hosts customized user interfaces to the model, helping stakeholders and policymakers understand options for technology implementation. The system dynamics model and web portal are combined in this project with analysis of energy demand, assessment of public works financing, development of governance structure, and implementation of a pilot RE insertion project.

The goal is an approach to climate change mitigation and adaptation that is replicable for use by other interested communities.