New Rules for the New Economy
Kevin Kelly, Wired Magazine, September, 1997
(excerpted by Cris W. Barnes)
- The Law of Connection: ``Embrace dumb power.''
Every step we take that banks on cheap, rampant, and universal
connection is a step in the right direction.
- The Law of Plentitude: ``More gives more.''
The more plentiful things become, the more valuable they become.
Value is derived from plentitude. Power comes from abundance. Where
the expense of churning out another copy becomes trivial, the value
of standards and the network booms.
- The Law of Exponential Value: ``Success is nonlinear.''
Value explodes exponentially with membership, while this value
explosion sucks in yet more members.
- The Law of Tipping Points: ``Significance precedes momentum''
or living ahead of the power curve.
Low fixed costs, insignificant marginal costs, and rapid distribution
depress tipping points below previous levels: technology is more
infectious and potent. The threshold of significance is lower, while
detecting events while they are beneath this threshold is essential.
- The Law of Increasing Returns: ``Make virtuous circles.''
Networked increasing returns grow exponentially. The Network Economy
rewards schemes that allow decentralized creation and punishes those
that don't.
- The Law of Inverse Pricing: ``Anticipate the cheap.''
The very best gets cheaper each year. As it does, it opens a space
around it for something new that is dear. George Gilder's Law: the total
bandwidth of communication systems will triple every 12 months.
Assume the function per dollar will drop to become asymptotically
free.
- The Law of Generosity: ``Follow the free.''
The most valuable things of all should be those that are given away.
How do companies survive in a world of generousity?
- Think of ``free'' as a design goal for pricing. Even if not
reached, it makes the system behave as if it does. A very small flat
rate may have the same effects as flat-out free.
- While one product is free, this usually positions other
services to be valuable.
- The only factor becoming scarce in a world of abundance is
human attention. Giving stuff away garners human attention, or mind
share, which then leads to market share.
The flaw of the Web (according to William Gibson) is its capacity to
waste tremendous amounts of time. He also points out it is also its
saving grace.
- The Law of Allegiance: ``Feed the web first.''
Unless your web (including your competitors) thrives, you die. The
prosperity individuals achieve is more closely related to their
nation's (or web's) prosperity than to their own efforts.
- The Law of Devolution: ``Let go at the top.''
Organisms must devolve to avoid getting stuck. The mountain you are
on will crumble; there is a higher mountain elsewhere, but you must
go into the valley to reach it.
- The Law of Displacement: ``The net wins.''
The displacement of mass with bits will continue. All transactions
and objects will tend to obey network logic.
- The Law of Churn: ``Seek sustainable disequilibrium.''
Only by promoting churn can long-term stability be achieved. If a
system settles into harmony and equilibrium it will eventually
stagnate and die.
- The Law of Inefficiencies: ``Don't solve problems.''
It's not ``how to do this job right'' but ``what is the right job to
do''. Wasting time and being inefficient are the way to discovery.
Don't solve problems, seek opportunities.
Back to Cris W. Barnes Home Page.
Cris W. Barnes
Los Alamos National Laboratory
P-24 MS-E526
Los Alamos, NM 87545
November 6, 1997